Category Archives: Insurance

MPL actuarial valuations in M&As

With mergers and acquisitions (M&As), it is critical that the medical professional liability insurance program be properly accounted for. Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses associated with the program can be a significant item on a balance sheet. There can be both substantial benefits and dangers associated with M&As that are important for management to consider in the preliminary stages of the M&A process. Milliman’s Richard Frese and Andy Hoffman provide perspective in this article.

This article was published in the February 2017 issue of Inside Medical Liability.

Capitalizing on your actuarial report

In this article, Milliman’s Richard Frese and Andy Hoffman offer organizations perspective concerning critical topics they should discuss with an actuary to enhance their insurance program, better manage liabilities, and maintain appropriate actuarial analysis for the needs of their program. The authors also discuss best practices when working with an actuary.

This article was published in The Risk Management Quarterly.

New developments in the computation of mortality rates: An actuary’s bread and butter

The computation of mortality rates has traditionally been the bread and butter of actuaries. The first mathematicians to venture into the actuarial field most likely spent their days analysing mortality rates and conducting life valuations. Nowadays, the work of actuaries is much more varied—which is a welcome development for most—but are we sometimes neglecting this core skill?

Milliman researchers in Paris certainly aren’t and their new research, hot off the press, published on 22 February 2017, represents a significant development in mortality and longevity risk modelling. It is vital reading for anyone working in this sphere.

My colleagues have developed a robust statistical methodology to correct the implicit inaccuracies of national mortality tables which are used widely in sophisticated mortality and longevity risk modelling. The results are striking.

Here I take a closer look at the relevance of these national mortality tables, the problems with them, and the corrections available in order to enhance mortality and longevity risk models. I will touch on the key technical points behind these developments from an Irish/UK perspective, leaving the rigorous mathematical explanations to the underlying research publications—the 2017 publication can be found here and the 2016 publication can be found here.

The use of national mortality tables
In Ireland and the UK, to set basic mortality assumptions in our pricing and reserving work, we tend to use insured lives mortality tables, such as the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) tables. However, national mortality tables based on the population as a whole are also used extensively in mortality and longevity risk modelling, where a greater quantity of data is required.

National mortality tables are used to calibrate stochastic mortality models, to derive mortality improvement assumptions, in sophisticated mortality risk management models, in Solvency II internal models, in pricing mortality/longevity securitisations, and in bulk annuity transactions.

Bulk annuity transactions are popular in the UK market, with a number of large deals executed during 2016, including the ICI Pension Fund’s two buy-in deals completed in the wake of Brexit, totalling £1.7 billion. Legal & General completed a £2.5 billion buyout agreement with the TRW Pension Scheme in 2014.

Longevity hedging (in particular, use of longevity swaps) is also an attractive approach to the de-risking of pension schemes, and would equally require the use of national mortality tables. Transactions range from the large-scale £5 billion Aviva longevity swap in 2014 to the recent, more modest, £300 million longevity swap completed between Zurich and SCOR in January 2017.

While the use of internal models to calculate mortality and longevity risk capital requirements under Solvency II is not prevalent in the Irish market, which is due to the size of companies and the amount of risk retained, it is likely that reinsurers are looking at such models. In the UK, larger companies may opt to use internal models if they are retaining large exposures.

Indeed, national mortality tables also typically inform mortality improvement assumptions for all companies, as the analysis of improvements requires large volumes of data. Therefore, even companies that do not use sophisticated mortality and longevity risk modelling techniques are implicitly impacted by the new developments in relation to the construction of national mortality tables.

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Recovery and resolution planning considerations

Recovery and resolution plans (RRPs) are receiving a lot of attention from regulators lately. In an InsuranceERM article, Milliman consultants Bridget MacDonnell, Eamonn Phelan, and Eoin King explore the Solvency II requirements related to RRPs for insurers and reinsurers.

The article is based on the authors’ paper “Recovery and Resolution Plans: Dealing with financial distress.”

Reliability issues in the construction of national mortality tables for the general population: What you should know

National mortality tables are crucial inputs to the quantification of mortality and longevity risks. In the absence of data specific to insured or pension populations, national mortality tables are based on general population data. Recent work by Milliman demonstrates problems with the reliability of these reference tables, including false cohort effects, and offers methodological improvements for their construction. In this paper, Milliman consultants Laurent Devineau, Alexandre Boumezoued, and Dale Hagstrom present both historical perspectives and new solutions to this problem.

Saying “I do” to wedding insurance

The average wedding in the United States costs $35,329. And organizing a wedding involves a lot of variables that introduce the risk of financial loss. In the article “Getting hitched without the hitch,” Milliman consultant Elizabeth Bart discusses wedding insurance coverage that can mitigate a couple’s financial risk.

Here’s an excerpt:

For such an important life event, at such a high price point, it’s worth protecting your investment. Many insurance companies have wedding liability products to help. Wedding insurance can combine a number of different coverages and can range from only $95 to $500 depending on the types and level of coverage provided. Wedding insurance is easy to purchase online (or over the phone). For example, Travelers offers a Wedding Protector Plan and has a quiz to help gauge the riskiness of your wedding (https://www.travelers.com/personal-insurance/wedding-insurance/why-wedding-insurance.aspx). Other insurers, such as WedSafe and Wedsure, also make it easy to find a quote and buy wedding insurance online.

The most commonly selected wedding coverage is liability coverage. This is typically purchased in situations where the selected venue requires the couple to cover property damage and bodily injury. In addition, certain venues may require the purchase of liquor liability coverage to protect against any alcohol-related incidents.

In the event of a necessary cancellation or postponement, financial losses can be mitigated by cancellation/postponement coverages. Massive amounts of rain and snow can cancel flights, close roads, and even damage or close venues. A severe illness or injury could befall the couple or a parent, grandparent, child, or officiant. Sudden military deployments can also cause wedding cancellations. All of these are “necessary” cancellations/postponements, and insurance exists to protect against any financial losses they may cause.